The UK National Risk Register (NRR), an assessment of the most significant risks facing the country, has been updated by the Government today. Many of the hazards highlighted by the register are related to natural hazards and the Met Office plays an essential role in dealing with many of the issues. These include severe weather, space weather, coastal flooding, drought etc.
Met Office Services Director, Simon Brown, explains the Met Office role when it comes to preparing for and coping with many of these risks.
The Met Office is a Category 2 Responder working closely with Government and resilience community to warn and protect the public playing a pivotal role at times of severe weather and during related emergencies across the UK. It is a key organisation when it comes to both planning for and responding to emergencies and incidents across the country.
In the latest update of the NRR, published today, hazards associated with extreme weather such as storms, droughts, flooding, extreme cold, snow and ice etc. remain a priority, while the impact assessment for heatwaves is being increased from high to significant. This is in recognition of an undeniable warming trend for the UK. Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes with the chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than in a climate unaffected by human influence.
However, the influence of weather doesn’t stop there, even incidents that aren’t caused by the weather are often influenced by it and the government and resilience community often rely on the Met Office for information vital in protecting the public. For example our volcanic ash forecasts, at times of a volcanic eruption, support decision-making by airlines, the CAA and NATS keeping passengers safe and reducing transport disruption. Plumes of pollution from hazardous waste fires can be predicted, helping inform decisions about air quality and possible evacuations. Climate change is one of the most serious threats facing our world today and the Met Office is home to some of the world’s foremost climate scientists, their research supports mitigation and adaption plans both here in the UK and across the globe.
Space weather has been on the NRR since 2011, when it was recognised as a potential threat by the UK Government. Its risk level is also being upgraded from high to significant in the latest NRR. Severe space weather events can have potentially devastating impacts on critical national infrastructure and these potential impacts are becoming even more of a risk as we become more and more reliant on technology such as radio communications, satellites, and Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Space weather prediction is of crucial importance to the likes of power companies, satellite operators and the aviation industry. The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre is one of just a handful of 24/7 space weather prediction centres around the globe, monitoring activity on the surface of the sun.
Our Services Operations Centre in Exeter is a 24/7 facility that not only monitors weather but also hosts the joint Met Office / Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre that provides flood guidance for England and Wales and monitoring the risk of severe space weather events.
Every year impacts from severe weather cost the UK millions of pounds. It is estimated that insurance losses from Storm Eunice in February 2022 alone totalled £200-350 million. The human cost is often more significant – the same storm is reported to have caused 3 deaths in the UK with a further 14 fatalities across Europe. These human and economic impacts highlight the destructive power of such storms.
Pioneering work undertaken by Met Office scientists is giving us a better understanding of the changes we can expect to high impact weather events as a result of climate change. This work details the likely frequency and type of extreme weather events we can expect in the future, along with their likely impact. Whilst risk assessments and plans may be robust at the moment, evolution of these plans is necessary as climate change continues to affect the weather conditions of the UK. Extreme weather events are becoming more severe and more common. The heatwave of July 2022 is a perfect example of this with the UK reaching 40.3oC in Lincolnshire. This smashed the previous UK record of 38.7oC and temperatures of this level will likely be exceeded in coming years as the global climate warms.
